The opinion poll by Polstrat and People's Insight, forecasts a comfortable majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
With a projected tally of 362 seats, the NDA seems poised for a triumphant third consecutive term. However, amidst the anticipation of an NDA landslide, the ambitious target of “400 paar” may remain just beyond grasp.
The survey captured the sentiments of a staggering 25 lakh respondents from April 7th to April 13th, 2024.
Despite formidable hype and projections, the opposition grouping, INDI Alliance, comprising the Congress party and others, languishes far behind with an estimated 120 seats. Even with the potential addition of seats from parties like the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) and the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab, the opposition seems unlikely to pose a significant challenge to the NDA's dominance. Should these two parties be added under the INDI Alliance banner, AITC's 21 seats and the AAP Punjab's eight seats would take the opposition coalition's tally in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 to 149 seats.
Polstrat Opinion Poll Predicts a BJP's Wave in Uttar Pradesh
Delving deeper into the electoral battlegrounds, Uttar Pradesh emerges as a pivotal state, wielding influence with its 80 Lok Sabha seats. Here, the BJP asserts its dominance, projected to clinch 64 seats, leaving rivals like the Indian National Congress, Samajwadi Party, and Bahujan Samaj Party trailing far behind.
Opinion Poll Points at a Nail-Biting Race for NDA in Maharashtra and West Bengal
Maharashtra, boasting the second-highest Lok Sabha seat count, witnesses a fierce showdown between the NDA and the INDI alliance. With 28 seats projected for the NDA and 20 for the opposition, the state becomes a crucible of political contention, highlighting the complexity of electoral dynamics at play.
In West Bengal, BJP and Trinamool Congress continue to be the main competitors. While the BJP is predicted to increase its seat share from 18 in 2019 to 20 in 2024, Trinamool Congress is predicted to win 21 seats, keeping the 2019 tally nearly similar.
BJP Expands its Footprint Across India
According to the opinion poll, the BJP stands to secure three out of Kerala's 20 seats, a notable shift from the previous election where the party had no presence in the state. The Congress is anticipated to win 11 seats, with IUML and KC(J) projected to win two and one seat respectively. In South India, the BJP is poised to claim victory in 20 out of Karnataka's 28 seats, with the Congress expected to secure five seats. In Tamil Nadu's 39-seat battleground, the BJP is projected to secure just two seats, with Congress, DMK, AIADMK, MMK, PMK, and others dividing the remaining seats.
In Bihar, there's hope for the NDA to maintain its lead in the 40 seats. The opinion poll indicates that the NDA is poised to win 31 seats, while there's a possibility of eight seats going to the INDI Alliance, and one seat could be won by others. What's particularly noteworthy is that the Purnia seat in Bihar appears to be leaning towards an independent candidate, suggesting that Pappu Yadav might emerge victorious here. The most significant aspect of Bihar is that both of Lalu's daughters are seen facing defeat in Bihar.
BJP Might Lose 5 Seats in Rajasthan and one in Delhi
In Rajasthan, BJP is projected to secure 19 seats, facing a loss of five seats from its previous tally, while Congress might win two seats and the rest of the seats would go to others. Interestingly, it's notable that Ashok Gehlot's son could face defeat from Jalore. In Delhi as well, the BJP is predicted to lose one seat from its previous tally.
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