Haryana may be a small state, but this tiny and rural dominated state plays a key role in the national politics. The state is going to poll on Saturday and the Naib Singh Saini led BJP government is finding it tough to retain the state which it has been ruling for the past two decades.The Saini-led BJP government is facing the wrath of the people on both casteist lines and on economic front.
The BJP during this year's Lok Sabha election found that the prosperous OBC community the Jats who have dominated Haryana politics with Bansi Lal, Devi Lal Hukam Singh, Bhajan Lal and Om Prakash Chautala as the Chief ministers are now supporting the Congress led by Bhupinder Singh Hooda.
The BJP to their horror found that like the Lok sabha election the Jats, scheduled caste and some OBC communities are against the BJP.
The Congress by fielding the wrestler Vignesh Phogat has managed to get the sympathy of the women votes. The women in haryana are largely guided by their male folks in deciding whom to vote.
BJP finds it tough to retain power
“BJP ja rahi hai aur Congress aa rahi hai” with this slogan coined by a well- orchestrated Priyanka Gandhi, the Gandhi clan of Rahul and Priyanka have been drawing a good crowd during the election rallies.
The Congress has been able to retain the Jats and the Scheduled caste votes even after the Lok Sabha election. The Jats and the Scheduled caste that comprise 40 percent of the total votes could tilt the balance in this Vidhan Sabha election.
“ BJP sarkar to ja rahi hai. Na koi aandhi aur nahi koi toofan hain lekin Congress aa rahi hai” said Prem Dangi, a Jat and a tea seller of Bawal, a scheduled caste dominated rural constituency.
But the BJP with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah campaigning aggressively in the state has improved the lot of the BJP and its on a strong footing in about 18 seats.
The BJP is trying to compensate for the loss of Jat votes by following the Yadav votes in the Ahirwar region which are located in and around Delhi. The Yadavs are campaigning for the BJP under the leadership of the Union minister Rao Inderjit Singh. A Ahir whose father Rao Birendra Singh was once the Chief Minister of Haryana. Rao Inderjit has staked the claim to become the Chief Minister and the Yadavs are backing the BJP only to see Rao Inderjit Singh become the Chief Minister.
Apart from the Yadavs, the BJP is also banking on the Punjabi votes. But the Punjabis who are all migrants from Pakistan who settled down in the state after partition are also unhappy with the BJP as Mohan Lal Khattar was removed as the Chief Minister. However he has been somehow rehabilitated by a cabinet berth in the Centre.
AAP woos Sikhs
The Sikhs who are spread all over the state and particularly in the districts bordering Punjab could vote for the AAP. But the AAP like the Jannayak Peoples party ( JJP) who were the alliance partner of the BJP government with its leader Dushyant Chautala on the strength of 10 seats became the Deputy Chief Minister of the state.
But following the investiture of Naib Singh Saini, the BJP broke the alliance. The JJP now is precariously placed. And so is the INLD and the BSP combined. The Devi Lal's sons and grandsons are a divided house. While Om Prakash Chautala is in contest with his elder son Abhay Chautala, the INLD has strategically forged alliance with the BSP to corner the Jats and the SC votes. But the impact of Mayawati is negligible.
Jats may be divided this time
“The Jat community are disillusioned by the Devi Lal clan of Om Prakash Chautala, Abhay Chautala, Ajay Chautala and Dishyant Chautala. The Jats would not vote for the Chautalas or their alliance partner BSP as their votes would go waste. The Jats are solidly behind Congress and no party could make a dent on the jat votes. We have been witnessing overwhelming support of the Jats for the Congress and this would mean BJP Sarkar gayee” said Netar Ram, an auto rickshaw driver of IFFCO Chowk, Gurgaon.
However, the INLD and the BSP claim that they are strongly placed on a dozen seats.
The most fierce battle is being witnessed in one and a half dozen seats between the Congress and the BJP and in Bagar belt the BJP is trying to woo Jat votes in the Jat dominated 21 seats.Both PM Modi and Amit Shah have concentrated on this region to ensure that the Jats vote for the BJP. But the Jats talk about the support they extended to the BJP that enabled the BJP to come to power, but they have ignore the Jat community when it comes to appointing a Jat as the CM.
The BJP is also concentrating on 23 seats of the Grand Trunk Road belt where there are 23 seats. The BJP won 21 seats in the 2014 election from the Bagar and GT Road belt and 12 seats in the 2019 elections.
The BJP's campaign this time has overtaken the Congress campaigns. The BJP leaders addressed 150 election meetings and Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed five meetings covering 89 constituencies. Amit Shah addressed a dozen meetings and so was the UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
The Congress strategists are Bhupendra Hooda, his son Deependra and the AICC incharge for the Haryana election Ashok Gehlot. They have been busy wooing the votes for the Congress on casteist lines and anti-incumbency facts.
Rift between Hooda and Selja may create trouble for Congress
The rift between Bhupinder Hooda and Kumari Selja surfaced during the electioneering. However Selja campaigned mostly in the SC seats. The SCs are also hoping to see a SC Chief minister in Haryana. The Hooda group was successful in influencing the joining of Ashok Tanwar, who deserted the BJP just after addressing an election meeting for the BJP.
“The Congress proved that the last minute entry of Ashok Tanwar in Congress means the consolidation of the SC votes for the Congress and a great loss for the BJP. The Hooda group also showed that Seilza is falsely claiming as the leader of the SC. This was a masterstroke” said Ranjit Poonia, a Congress leader.
Kumari Seila defeated Ashok Tanwar in the Lok sabha election by a margin of over two lakh votes.
The rebels are troubling the BJP and Congress both,but the BJP is facing the music with a large number of rebels.
The AAP is expected to play the role of spoilsport,but the AAP candidates barring in a few constituencies adjoining Punjab and in Delhi are not much in contest. The AAP could win one or two seats.
According to Rohit Choudhary, a senior political analyst, Congress in the 90 member house could win 40 to 50 seats, the BJP could win 22 to 32 seats, the INLD and the BSP combo could win one to five seats, the JJP-ASP one seat and the Independents four to nine seats.
Thus, the Congress even if it finishes a few seats short of majority would be favoured by the smaller parties and the Independents to form the Government.
Prakash Bhandari is a veteran journalist with over 50 years of experience. He has worked with The Times of India for 30 years and contributed to leading publications as well as international news agency AFP.
