Seven Assembly constituencies in Rajasthan will go for by-election polling on Wednesday and this by-election is being considered as a referendum on the BJP's government headed by Bhajan Lal Sharma. These byelections have been caused because of the deaths of the sitting MLA and also because some of the MLAs were elected to the Lok Sabha in this summer's election
It's for the first time seven byelections are taking place for the Vidhan Sabha in the state.
There are 84 candidates in fray for the seven Vidhan Sabha constituencies and the ruling BJP is in defensive right from the day the nominations and withdrawl process were over. Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma, who is facing criticism from his own party's cadre for the slow progress his government was moving and the way the administration was controlled by the bureaucracy.
Dausa to douse fire
The bitterest critic of the Bhajan Lal government is the senior minister Dr Kirori Lal Meena, who had submitted his resignation as a Cabinet minister following the defeat of the BJP candidates in three constituencies in which Dr Meena campaigned. Dr Meena, a powerful leader of the agriculturist Meena community that enjoys tremendous political clout.
Dr Meena' s own brother Jagmohan Lal Meena, a state service administrative officer is contesting from Dausa, a seat that fell vacant because of the sitting Congress MLA Murari Lal Meena was elected to the Lok Sabha. This is a Meena dominated seat and the Congress looking at the stranglehold of the Meena community in this constituency sprung a surprise by fielding a Schedule caste candidate DC Bairwa.
The Congress hope that with the Meena community backing Jagmohan Meena, all other caste like the SC, OBC and the Bramhins plus the Muslims would ensure Congress victory. Jagmohan Meena is facing it tough as there is likely to be a division of votes within the Meena community who are annoyed with his elder brother Dr Kirori Meena. This constituency has a large number of Gujjar votes that would go the Congress way because of young Sachin Pilot.
Dausa is a general constituency though there are 65,000 Meena voters and 67,000 SC voters and some 34,000 Bramhins and 20,000 Gujjars. The election here is Meena vs others.
Meena-Gujjar at Deoli-Uniara
In the ST reserved constituency of Deoli-Uniara in Tonk district the by-election was caused because former DGP and a Congress MLA Harish Meena was elected to Lok Sabha. In Deoli-Uniara the Congress has fielded K C Meena and the BJP has fielded Rajendra Gujjar,a Congress rebel Naresh Meena who made the contest a triangular one.
In this caste dominated byelection the Meenas, Gujjars and the SC votes would be crucial. There are 67,000 Meenas and 35,000 Gujjars and 28,000 SC and the Congress candidate is expecting large scale support of the Meena , Gujjar and full support of the SC that may see him through.
The Chief Minister Bhajan Lal has taken the byelections seriously and he went to different constituencies when the BJP candidates filed their nominations. But despite his personal presence, the BJP is facing rebellion of its own party cadre and out of seven seats, the BJP candidates is facing the rebellion of five BJP rebel candidates.
Bhajan Lal addressed 15 election meetings, while the BJP state unit president Madan Rathor addressed 24 meetings. PCC president Govind Singh Dotasara addressed six and Sachin Pilot four. Former Chief minister Ashok Gehlot who is busy with the Maharashtra election could address only two meetings.
But the BJP once again kept away former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and she was not seen campaigning for the party candidates.
Tribal trial
In the two tribal reserved seats of Chaurasi and Salumbar there is a direct fight between the Bhartiya Adivasi party (BAP) and the Congress. The Chaurasi seat fell vacant v because of the election of the sitting BAP MLA Raj Kumar Roat to the Lok Sabha and the Salumbar seat fell vacant because of the death of the BJP MLA Amrit Lal Meena.
The BJP has fielded Shanti Devi Meena, the widow of Amritlal just to cash in on the sympathy votes. The Congress has fielded Reshma Meena and she is enjoying an edge. There is a triangular contest in this seat as the Bhartiya Adivasi party is using the byelections to showcase the Adivasi power through their party's nominees. Raj Kumar Katara, the BAP candidate who has been fielded this time as he secured 25,000 votes in the last Assembly election in 2023. There is a contest here between Reshma and Katara,
In Chaurasi where the total Adivasi electorate is 1.94 lakh all the three candidates are aiming to get the Adivasi votes. Congress has fielded young Ramesh Mahesh Roat and he is in a triangular contest against BJP's Kari Lal Nemana and BAP's Anil Katara. The BAP is thriving on the Adivasi's unity in their demand for a separate Adivasi state that would include the tribal belt of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Thus, its difficult to say how the BJP and the Congress candidates would fair in the byelection as popular leader raj Kumar Roat who is a member of Lok Sabha from Banswara-Dungarpur had stressed that the tribes are now united to strengthen the BAP.
Jat to dominate Jhunjhunu
In Jhunjhunu where the Congress has fielded Amit Ola, the son of the Congress sitting MLA and a minister in Ashok Gehlot government Brijendra Ola. The seat fell vacant because of Brijendra Ola's election to the Lok Sabha. Amit Ola is involved in a three-cornered contest here.
The BJP has fielded Rajendra Bhambhu and a Rajput and a former MLA Rajendra Gudha is contesting as an Independent. This assembly seat is dominated by the Jats ( 62,000) 54,000 Muslims and 24,000 SC votes. The Ola family is considered as the first political family and late Sis Ram Ola, who was a Congress leader and a former union minister is well know n for the rehabilitation work undertaken by him for the ex servicemen. The people of the district which has about a lakh of persons in the armed forces and in para military forces and has produced over two dozen martyrs are annoyed with the BJP government because of the Agniveer scheme.
Amit Ola is thriving on the goodwill of his grandfather and father and large scale support of the Muslims and the SC in a contest that would see division of Jat votes.
Will Khinvsar remain with Hanuman?
Khinvsar seat fell vacant v because of the election of the Rastriya Loktantrik Party's MLA Hanuman Beniwal elected to the Lok Sabha. This is the second time the byelection was affected in Khinvsar as in 2019, the seat fell vacant when the RLP in alliance with BJP won the seat through Hanuman Beniwal in the Lok Sabha election.
This time Beniwal has fielded his wife Kanika in the triangular fight where the jat votes would split with the BJP fielded Rewat Ram Danga and the Congress has fielded Ratna Choudhry, wife of a former IPS officer. In Khinvsar there are 80,000 Jat votes,30,000 Rajputs and 12,000 Bramhins. But surely, Beniwal's domain has been threatened by the BJP candidate.
In Ramgarh Aryan is the challenge
In Ramgarh in Alwar district, the Congress has fielded the son of veteran Zubair Khan, a Meo whose death caused this by-election. Aryan Zubar Khan is educated and has a good hold in the constituency which has a very large number of Muslim votes. But Aryan Zubair is supported by not only Meo but all other communities and the BJP is troubled by the rebels here. The Meo community is very disturbed here because of the mob lynching in recent time and also the proposal for the regulation of the Waqf boards by the Union government.
PCC President Govind Singh Dotasara said the BJP will lose all the seven seats and cited five reasons for thr BJP's crushing defeat. He said the BJP failed to announce the MSP for the purchase of bajra, failure to announce bonus on purchase of wheat. Second point is the failure of the BJP in effectively implementing the Chiranjivee health scheme, Anuprati Yojana, Pension,Indira Rasoi and concession on electricity tariff.
Third point is the closure of colleges and schools opened during the Congress regime and sacrificing the interest of the state to oblige Madhya Pradesh under the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project.
Fourth is the proposal to shelve the proposal for a few more districts announced during the Congress regime
The fifth point was sidelining the state incharge Radhamohan Lal Agarwal and Vasundhara Raje for campaigning that has annoyed the RSS.
Prakash Bhandari is a veteran journalist with over 50 years of experience. He has worked with The Times of India for 30 years and contributed to leading publications as well as international news agency AFP.
